090311 Livestock Exports Down, Beef Imports Up

The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) and USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) published its quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. According to the report, exports of U.S. agricultural products during fiscal year (FY) 2009 are expected to total $95.5 billion, which is down from the November estimate of $98.5 billion. Also, this is 17.2 percent lower than 2008. During 2009, exports of livestock products are predicted to reach $11.9 billion, down from the November forecast of $12.9 billion. Part of the revision comes from cattle hide shipments, which are forecast to decline $150 million as Asian tanners supplying automobile producers face sluggish car sales. Additionally, this was down 9.9 percent from 2008. The major cause of the decline is weaker demand as the result of the global economic crisis.

Exports of beef and veal during 2009 are forecast at 600,000 MT, unchanged from the prior forecast. The value of beef and veal exports during 2009 is expected to total $2.7 billion, unchanged from the November estimate.

U.S. pork exports during 2009 are projected to total 1.3 MMT, down from the previous forecast of 1.5 MMT. The value of pork exports is expected to total $3.4 billion, compared to the prior estimate of $4.0 billion. The revision is based on a weaker global economy and a strong dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. imports of agricultural products during FY 2009 are forecast at $82.5 billion, up from the November forecast of $81.0 billion. Also, this is 4.0 percent greater than 2008.

The value of livestock, dairy and poultry imports during 2009 is expected to equal $11.3 billion, down from the previous estimate of $12.0 billion. Also, this is down 7.2 percent from 2008. During 2009, imports of livestock and meats are predicted at $8.0 billion, down from the November forecast of $8.4 billion. Also, this is down 8.1 percent from 2008. Imports of cattle and calves during 2009 are forecast at 2.0 million head, unchanged from the previous forecast.

The value of imports of cattle and calves is expected to total $1.4 billion, down from the prior estimate of $1.5 billion due to a decline in live cattle imports from Canada. During 2009, swine imports are forecast at 7.5 million head, up from the November estimate of 7.4 million head. The value of swine imports is forecast to total $400 million, compared to the previous forecast of $500 million.

Fresh beef and veal imports during 2009 are predicted to equal 900,000 MT, up from the November estimate of 800,000 MT as low U.S. cow slaughter will increase demand for beef. The value is forecast at $3.1 billion, up from the prior forecast of $3.0 billion. During 2009, fresh pork imports are expected to total 300,000 MT, compared to the previous estimate of 400,000 MT. The value is forecast at $1.0 billion, down from the November forecast of $1.1 billion

Recently, CanFax released Canada's current cattle on feed numbers for terminal feedlots with 1,000 or more head in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. According to the figures, Canada's cattle on feed totaled 950,679 head on February 1, 2009. This was 5.9 percent more than one year ago but was 7.9 percent less than two years ago. During January, 104,902 head of cattle were placed on feed, which was up 18.3 percent over one year ago but was down 38.1 percent from two years ago. The number of steers placed on feed equaled 68,702 head, which accounted for 65.5 percent of the total placements. Heifers placed on feed totaled 36,200 head. More specifically, feeder cattle placements weighing less than 600 pounds totaled 14,780 head, which was 78.8 percent greater than a year ago. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds were 29.3 percent more than a year ago, amounting to 18,502 head. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds were up 41.9 percent over a year ago, totaling 34,346 head.

Placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds equaled 37,274 head, which was 11.0 percent lower than last year. Meanwhile, during January, Canada's fed cattle marketings increased 5.5 percent over a year ago to 173,395 head. However, this was 8.8 percent less than two years ago. According to CanFax, feedlots were aggressive with marketings in January, with improved prices supporting movement.

Additionally, CanFax released a feedlot demographics report. According to the data, as of January 1, 2009, feedlot capacity in Alberta and Saskatchewan totaled 1,723,000 head, which was down 1.4 percent from 2008.

On February 20, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published its monthly Cattle on Feed report. According to the numbers, cattle and calves on feed for the U.S. slaughter market for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head on February 1, 2009 equaled 11.29 million head. This was 5.7 percent lower than one year ago and was 3.7 percent lower than two years ago. During January, 1.86 million head of cattle were placed on feed, which was up 4.0 percent over one year ago and was up 9.9 percent over two years ago. More specifically, placements of feeder cattle weighing less than 600 pounds equaled 380,000 head, which was 5.0 percent less than a year ago. Placements weighing 600 to 699 pounds were up 8.1 percent over a year ago, amounting to 505,000 head. Placements weighing 700 to 799 pounds totaled 553,000 head, 5.3 percent more than last year. Placements of feeder cattle weighing more than 800 pounds equaled 420,000 head, which was 6.3 percent higher than a year ago.

Meanwhile, during January, fed cattle marketings fell 6.3 percent from one year ago and 5.6 percent from two years ago to 1.74 million head. This was the lowest fed cattle marketings for the month of January since the series began in 1996.

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