050430 US Beef Production Revised DownApril 23, 2005US meat consulting firm, Steiner Consulting, have revised their latest quarterly supply forecasts for 2005 downwards, predicting total US beef production to reach 11.2 million tonnes, similar to last year's levels. The lower production level is primarily due to the delayed reopening the US-Canadian border to cattle under 30 months, originally expected on March 7. The Steiner forecast assumes that Canadian cattle under 30 months of age will be allowed into the US by the third quarter of 2005, which will generate a rise in cattle supplies and US cattle slaughter from that time. The number of US cattle available for slaughter is projected to remain stable in 2005, as the herd is currently in the process of rebuilding. This rebuilding has seen a 4.2% decline in female cattle slaughter during the first quarter of this year compared to last year, to 1.24 million head. The continued tight cattle supplies and firm demand are forecast to push prices to record levels in 2005. Live steer prices have already reached record highs for the first quarter and are forecast to average 86US›/lb, 2.9% higher than last year. Steiner has predicted that the tight female cattle supply will push domestic 90CL cow beef prices up 7.8% on last year, to 148›/lb for 2005. The price of imported Australian 90CL beef is forecast to rise 6.6% in 2005, to 141.2US›/lb, 30% up on the average for the preceding five years. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prediction for US beef production (also released this week) is higher than the Steiner estimates, at 11.6 million tonnes for 2005. The difference is due to the USDA's assumption that Canadian cattle under 30 months will be allowed to enter during the second quarter. Price expectations are similar to the Steiner forecast, with the USDA predicting live choice steers to range between 83-87US›/lb.
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