050428 Higher Global Meat Production Forecast

According to the April 2005 Meat Market Assessment, released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global meat production is forecast to rise 2.8% in 2005, to 264.7 million tonnes. The main reasons for the increased output are strong meat prices and low feed grain prices.

Almost 80% of the 7 million tonne increase in production for the year is forecast to occur in developing countries - mainly in Asia, which accounts for more than 40% of global meat output. The developing countries' share of global meat production is projected has increased from 43% in the early 1990 to 58% in 2005.

The FAO predicts beef and buffalo meat production will rise 3.1% in 2005, to 63.5 million tonnes, after no growth in 2004. While cattle numbers remain low in Australia and North America, strong cattle prices are projected to encourage an increase in beef slaughter and output in these regions. In contrast, EU output is expected to decline in the coming year, due to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, which has lowered payments to producers. This could, however, be partially offset by the proposed phasing out of the ban on slaughter for human consumption of UK cattle older than 30 months.

Global sheep meat production is projected to rise 3.3% during 2005, supported by strong growth in developing countries that account for nearly three-quarters of global supplies. Similarly, poultry production is forecast to increase by 2.8%, to 80 million tonnes. Pig meat production is projected to rise 2.6%, to 103.4 million tonnes, as a robust Asian economic outlook prompts a 3-4% increase in output in China, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam.

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