030904 Tyson's Earnings Per Share Down for Year

Score this round for Tyson. After an inconsistent year found the company plucking its second quarter bare, the food giant will be closing out its fiscal year nicely on the strength of a healthy fourth quarter.

But the company's expected $0.35 and $0.40 per share in 2003's final quarter won't be enough to save the year. Even if Tyson comes in on the high end of its projected range, it will mean diluted earnings per share of $0.94. The company produced $1.08 in earnings in fiscal 2002.

While this year's showing is saddled with one-time charges, the future doesn't look so bright, either. The fiscal 2004 range is wide, with Tyson looking to earn as little as $0.90 or as much as $1.20 per share next year. In other words, carve the volatility of fiscal 2003 out of the equation and you still have a company that may or may not earn as much next year as it did two years ago or, even worse, the buck a share it earned all the way back in fiscal 1999.

At least, Tyson isn't playing it safe. For starters, through a series of acquisitions over the years including meat-heavy IBP, Tyson isn't the same chicken farmer it started out as nearly 70 years ago. It is a major player in beef and pork products as well, and it's actually the beef line that has widened Tyson's mood swings. Management credits the division for its strong fourth-quarter showing, but it was a surplus of beef, poor meat sales in Japan, and higher cattle prices that hurt the company two quarters earlier.

Tyson being a beefy bellwether probably isn't much of a surprise to those who follow the strange portfolios of its fellow food makers. Sara Lee goes far beyond the sweets with its Playtex, Hillshire Farms, and even Hanes and Wonderbra brands. ConAgra has both genders covered between Manwich and Swiss Miss. Campbell Soup serves up Pepperidge Farms sweets along with the spiciness of Pace salsa.

So Tyson's made logical diversifications beyond its poultry playing field. Let's hope it doesn't broaden its wings too much. It's hard to fathom how wide fiscal 2005's targets would be if that were the case.

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