000650 No End to Drought in Sight for South

Washington - Farmers in Nebraska, Missouri, Texas and Georgia -- who have already seen crops wither and livestock struggle -- will have to endure hotter, dryer weather than normal through September, U.S. government forecasters said this week.

While the drought has eased in some parts of the Midwest thanks to recent downpours, Southern states have little to look forward to this summer except unrelenting heat and sunny skies, according to a new forecast issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA issued a seasonal forecast for July through September, which are key crop- growing months for much of the nation.

Another year of drought in states such as Georgia, Texas and Florida could impact consumers by raising food prices, restricting water for home gardening, and sparking wildfires.

Governors in Nebraska, Georgia and Alabama have already taken emergency steps to help farmers and ranchers keep livestock alive in parched grazing pastures.

The new three-month weather forecast sent U.S. corn and soybean futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade higher. Soybean futures rose by as much as 6 cents a bushel and corn by 2.25 cents a bushel.

The government said drought conditions showed no signs of let-up for Georgia and the rest of the South this summer.

Some parts of the Southeastern states and Florida would get much-needed seasonal rains, but long-term drought conditions would persist in many areas.

“Odds favor long-term drought persisting from southern Louisiana to interior Georgia and South Carolina despite short-term relief in June,” NOAA said.

Recent rains improved conditions in several Midwest states and part of Texas, the new forecast said. But Midwest areas still hit by drought include southwest Iowa, central Illinois, Nebraska and Missouri, NOAA said.

Drought Disaster In South

Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes has been asked by some state officials to seek federal disaster aid for farmers. Nearly all Georgia counties qualified last year for federal relief with at least a 30% average loss in crops.

Atlanta suburbs have banned outdoor watering of lawns and gardens in the evenings to conserve water from streams and rivers that are at record lows.

In the neighboring state of Alabama, Gov. Donald Siegelman declared a state of emergency in 19 of the state's 67 counties, and the National Guard may be dispatched to haul drinking water to needed areas.

Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns declared a drought emergency on Wednesday and said he would free up state-owned roadside land for farmers needing hay to feed their cattle.

The U.S. Agriculture Department has also released land in seven Nebraska counties for grazing to help ranchers avoid selling off their herds. More than 80% of the grazing pasture and range land in Nebraska is rated in poor to fair condition.

In Florida, farmers and ranchers have already lost an estimated $200 million worth of crops. Gov. Jeb Bush, the brother of Republican presidential hopeful George Bush, has asked the federal government to declare Florida a disaster area.

NOAA forecasters predicted above-normal rain for the Southwest through September, and improving soil moisture by late July.

Texas, which is in the midst of its fourth severe drought in five years, should benefit from seasonal thunderstorms, but drought conditions will persist in the southwestern region of the state, NOAA said.

Drought Forecasts Questioned

Some farmers and market analysts in drought-stricken areas discounted NOAA's new forecast as exaggerating the severity of the hot, dry weather. This is first year NOAA is issuing monthly seasonal drought forecasts as well as weekly updates.

“Their forecasts haven't really panned out that well,” said Dan Zwicker, market analyst for the Illinois Farm Bureau. “Conditions in Illinois are excellent for crops going into their development stage.”

For the past three months, NOAA has said Illinois and surrounding areas would be hit by a worsening drought this summer.

NOAA officials acknowledged that the weather forecasts are still an imprecise science, but said drought warnings enable farmers to prepare for the worst and plant crops slightly earlier than usual.

Most U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat were planted well ahead of the past few growing seasons, according to U.S. Agriculture Department data. The USDA predicts American farmers will harvest a record soybean crop and a near-record corn crop this year.

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