Denver - The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects U.S. beef exports to slip five percent this year, from 1997 levels because of the Asian financial crisis, but at least one economist said the estimate may be "unduly pessimistic".
Chuck Lambert, chief economist for the National Cattlemen's Beef Association Thursday said the government's forecast includes an expected 10 percent decline in sales to Japan and a 25 percent drop to South Korea.
"The Japan forecast may not be that soft because we started to see an increase in sales in November," Lambert said during the NCBA's 100th annual convention.
Beef sales to Japan in November 1997 were 32,670 tonnes, up from 23,620 during the same period the previous year, according to the latest U.S. figures which Lambert said he received last week from the Foreign Agricultural Service.
The monthly increase was tied to ideas that Japanese domestic consumption was slowly improving following a scare with E-Coli bacteria in 1996 that was not meat related, but still impacted consumption, Lambert said.
U.S. beef sales from January-November 97 to Japan were 319,930 tonnes, compared with 317,170 the previous year.
Total beef sales to all countries was 635,610 tonnes, up 12.4 percent from the same period in 1996 at 565,500.
Another glimmer of hope in the new monthly export figures was in continued strong purchases from Mexico, which has elbowed Canada out of second place behind Japan as a U.S. beef customer.
November '97 beef exports to Mexico were 9,720 tonnes, up from 5,430 in November the previous year. January-November '97 exports to Mexico totaled 94,630, up 84.3 percent from the previous year.
"We're on target to set record exports to Mexico," Lambert said.
Lambert said Mexico was benefitting from a growing economy and the North America Free Trade Agreement, which eliminated the 15 to 25 percent tariffs on U.S. beef.
"For the foreseeable future as their economy grows and their middle class expands, they're potentially a very good market for U.S. beef," Lambert said.
Lambert added that beef exports to Mexico were back on track with a pace that was derailed by the peso devaluation in 1995.
The recovery in Mexico could be a good case study for how long it could take for Asian markets to recover, Lambert said.
"A two- to three-year rebound, I think, is a normal expectation depending on how fast they reform their economies and how fast they implement and open their markets. We view it as a short-term blip in a long-term growth in the Asian markets," Lambert said.
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