081218 Palin "Well Suited" For Iowa IN 2012

(Politico) -- Former John McCain pollster Bill McInturff said that in a potential 2012 GOP primary, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would have a leg up on her rivals because she is "well-suited" to campaign in Iowa.

McInturff pointed to the fact that despite a bruising presidential campaign, Palin's favorability ratings among Republican voters is still extremely high. While Palin comes with some baggage among the general electorate, for Iowa, where former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee successfully drew a large number of social conservatives to his winning bid, she has strong prospects.

"She's a candidate that would be well-suited to doing well in Iowa," McInturff told reporters at a breakfast in Washington hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. He conceded that Palin creates "a sharply different reaction with swing voters and core primary voters" but said the latter "are not anywhere close to the center."

If Palin is weighing a potential run, McInturff said that difference and the advantage it gives here is something she is keenly aware of. "She has a very strong political instinct," he said. "She has a sharp and calculated instinct."

Reflecting back on the presidential campaign, the pollster said that the McCain campaign had a brief window where they believed victory over President- elect Barack Obama was possible. But that hope was dashed when the campaign's back was broken by the financial crisis.

"If we had to collapse America's economy, I wish it had been on Dec. 15 instead of Sept. 15," he said. Leading up to the financial crisis, he said, the campaign was prepared to launch an offensive to exploit the lingering uncertainties voters had about Obama, but that when the markets crashed, "You didn't have a presidential campaign anymore, you just had the two campaigns reacting to this."

"People had substantial and serious concerns about this guy," McInturff said of Obama. "But if you give people a choice between a proven failure and an uncertain future, they will always choose the uncertain future," he added, referring to the contrast between Obama and the damaged GOP brand.

The pollster also said the crisis changed McCain's normal instincts as he tried to demonstrate a presidential level of leadership. For instance, he said, "If John McCain was just a U.S. senator, I cannot imagine him supporting the bailout. . . But you're not going to be a senator, you are going to be president of the United States."

Even after the financial crisis, McInturff said the Arizona senator was still within striking distance of Obama until former Secretary of State Colin Powell endorsed the Democrat. "We had three days where after the Powell endorsement the bottom just fell out," he said.

Early into the afternoon on Election Day, McInturff said the McCain campaign knew that Obama's victory was imminent as it read exit poll data. He said, though, that nobody was mourning the loss like they were "sappy volunteers."

"Your job is to fight like hell, even if you're getting beat with a baseball bat on the way out," McInturff said.

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