081211 78% in Florida Say Jeb Bush Likely to Run for Senate

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Florida voters say former Governor Jeb Bush is likely to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez in 2010.

A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that 45% believe Bush is very likely to run and 33% say he is somewhat likely to do so. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republicans believe he'll run along with 79% of Democrats.

While his brother, President George W. Bush, is vastly unpopular throughout the nation, Jeb Bush is viewed favorably by 60% of Florida voters, including 39% with a Very Favorable opinion. Forty percent (40%) offer a negative view, including 19% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. Favorable opinions are offered by 78% of Republicans, 46% of Democrats and 54% of those not affiliated with either major party.

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Some pundits believe Bush is considering a run in part to help redeem the family name. University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says that, in the Senate, Jeb "could redefine Bushism. It is widely believed that if Bush decides to enter the race, other major contenders will stay out and clear the way for him to win the nomination.

If Bush does not enter the race, it could force a decision on popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Sixty-seven percent (67%) say that he is likely to run for the Senate seat, including 33% who say such a campaign is Very Likely. But 52% of voters say it would be better for Florida if Crist remains as governor rather than serving in the Senate. Only 20% believe the state would be better off if he left his current job for the Senate.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of voters approve of the way Crist is handling the governorship while just 24% disapprove. Those figures include 34% who Strongly Approve and seven percent (7%) who Strongly Disapprove. Some analysts believe Crist's high favorables make him a more effective general election candidate than Bush.

Outgoing GOP Senator Martinez doesn't fare as well: 43% say he's been doing a good or an excellent job in the Senate while 13% rate his performance as poor. Voters are evenly divided as to whether he's stepping down because he wants to return to private life or because he thought he would lose in a bid for a second Senate term.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Florida voters say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling the role of president-elect. Thirty-four percent (34%) disapprove. Those figures include 48% who Strongly Approve and 15% who Strongly Disapprove for a Presidential Approval Index rating of +33. That's a bit higher than his ratings nationally.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Florida Democrats Strongly Approve of Obama's performance to date. So do 12% of Republicans and 50% of those not affiliated with either major party.

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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